US Home Prices Unexpectedly Jumped In May; Chicago Leading, Vegas Lagging

Having declined for three straight months, US home prices in America’s 20 largest cities was expected to rise very marginally (+0.1% MoM) in May (according to the latest data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller).

Instead, home prices accelerated 0.3% MoM (better than expected), lifting the annual appreciation to +1.63% YoY – the fastest annual price gain since July 2025…

“Monthly price appreciation continues to reflect the seasonal strength often associated with the spring homebuying season,” Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indice observed.

“On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, the National Index rose 0.6% in May from April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites each advanced 0.9%.”

After adjusting for seasonality, the National Index declined 0.05% month over month, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted modest gains of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

“The gap between the NSA and seasonally adjusted results underscores the extent to which seasonal factors are supporting headline price growth,” added Kaufman.

“Even where prices increased on a seasonally adjusted basis, gains remained modest and were negative in real terms.

The geographic dispersion of home price trends continues to persist.

Kaufman noted that while major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest recorded year-over-year gains exceeding the national average, many metropolitan areas in the West and Sunbelt regions remain under pressure.

“For the third consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in May, followed by New York (4.2%) and Cleveland (3.1%).

In contrast, Las Vegas posted the largest decline, falling 1.9% year over year, with Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%) also registering notable losses.”

Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, mortgage rates could argue that prices should be starting to rise here…

“Affordability remains a significant headwind for the housing market,” Kaufman concluded.

“Thirty-year mortgage rates increased to 6.5% in May, leaving the ultra-low 3% borrowing costs a distant memory. At the same time, stubbornly high inflation rates are keeping both the cost of home financing and the cost of living high for prospective buyers.

“Against this backdrop, housing demand remains constrained, elevated borrowing costs continue to discourage potential homebuyers, and housing values decline in real terms for existing homeowners.”

But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower…

Interestingly, for the 12th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with CPI running well above the 1.6% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns.

Is this Trump’s ‘affordability’ plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.