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The Iran war has reignited over the last 48 hours with the United States responding to Iranian drone attacks which escalated into tit-for-tat strikes that are increasing in intensity and numbers. At the moment, threats are also being exchanged between President Trump and the Iranian leadership.
President Trump declared on his Truth Social account – “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”
IRGC Navy declared – “America’s indiscriminate strikes on Sirik do not solve the mystery of our dominance over the Strait. But our strikes against violators serve as a clear reminder to the remaining vessels of the safe route for passage. As for the American bases in the region, that is a separate matter. They will experience hell in the coming days.”
Iranian Army spokesperson declared – We have serious plans in two areas: domestic production and the procurement of advanced equipment from friendly countries. We will certainly be equipped with more advanced systems in the coming days.”
As the situation deteriorates in the region, Iraq has come back into focus as Iranian agents inside the country foment more regional instability, likely an Iranian strategy. It is obvious China, and possibly Russia, are rearming the Iranian regime. Although Russia is tied up in Ukraine, Moscow is likely helping Iran to remove Western pressure. NATO capitals have been arming Ukraine for long-range strikes into Russia which is harming the Russian economy. The risk of the two conflicts merging is now very real.
Iraqi security forces launched raids in Baghdad’s Green Zone on Sunday, targeting several politicians. No names or arrests have been officially confirmed. The Green Zone houses government offices, foreign embassies, and the residences of senior officials.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a speech this morning from Iraq – “I believe that, with the new circumstances that have emerged, the security of the Persian Gulf and the security of the region must be reconsidered by all the countries of the region, reported Clash Report.
“We must reach a new framework that includes all the countries of the region and excludes the presence or interference of any country from outside the region.
“The strategic relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq is of great value, and we are determined, God willing, to continue and strengthen this relationship.
Elements from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s speech this morning:
“According to Article One of the memorandum of understanding, the war must come to an end on all fronts, including in Lebanon. We regret that the Israeli regime continues its attacks.
“It is the responsibility of the United States, in accordance with the commitments it accepted under the memorandum of understanding, to ensure that these attacks by the Israeli regime are brought to an end and to allow the cessation of the war to be fully implemented there as well, including the withdrawal from the occupied territories.
“Under the memorandum of understanding, the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war operating capacity within 30 days under the management adopted by Iran and after the obstacles are removed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
“These arrangements are currently being implemented, and responsibility for them rests solely with the Islamic Republic of Iran. No other institution or country bears responsibility in this regard.
“According to the memorandum of understanding signed between Iran and the United States, any interference in this matter, or any attempt to establish new or separate arrangements from those currently being implemented by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will only complicate the situation, delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and increase tensions.
“As we witnessed over the past two nights, incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have already contributed to rising tensions and confrontations.
“I call on all parties not to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz or in the arrangements being made by the Islamic Republic of Iran for its reopening.
“They should abide by the signed memorandum of understanding and not allow it to deviate from its intended course.
The catalyst for the resurgent violence in the war seems to be the ‘peace deal’ signed between Israel and Lebanon a few days ago. The deal forces the disarmament of the Iranian proxy army Hezbollah, which is entrenched in southern Lebanon, and part of Lebanese society. Israel has established a security zone in southern Lebanon and declared original inhabitants will not be able to return, and has destroyed villages and Hezbollah infrastructure in the area.
Prime Minister Netanyahu displayed an initial map of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon, showing two test zones where the IDF will withdraw to allow the Lebanese army to attempt to disarm Hezbollah, reported Israeli Live News.
A Lebanese Christian source in Beirut provided the following local reaction to the peace deal this morning to CDM:
There are some positive points, namely the fact that it might open the way to ending the state of conflict between Lebanon and Israel, and perhaps even ending the islamic concept of “resistance” against Israel, but in its current form it could also be quite dangerous for many reasons, namely:
- The agreement is vague and lacks clear timelines or enforceable benchmarks, which could pave the way for Israel to indefinitely occupy a region in southern Lebanon hereby displacing Shias permanently into Christian areas.
- It might force the Lebanese government into direct confrontation with Hezbollah which could descend into a civil war that might even drag in Jolani and his forces from Syria.
- There is a feeling that the Christians are being pushed to take point on this , which would pit them almost alone against the so-called axis of resistance, and force them to be the tip of the spear in a confrontation in which they only have an indirect stake, for the benefit of Israel.
- The last point is that the Palestinian refugees are not mentioned, and any agreement with Israel should make it clear that Lebanon absolutely refuses to naturalise them no matter what, as naturalising them would be tantamount to a demographic catastrophe for the Christians.
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